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India’s Foreign Trade: October 2019

India’s overall exports (Merchandise and Services combined) in April-October2019-20* are estimated to be USD 310.23 billion, exhibiting a positive growth of 1.51per cent over the same period last year. Overall imports in April-October 2019-20* are estimated to be USD 359.68 billion, exhibiting a negative growth of 4.61per cent over the same period last year.

*Note: Services data pertains to April-September 2019-20 as September 2019 is the latest data available as per RBI’s Press Release dated 15thNovember 2019. It is arrived at by adding quarterly data of RBI for Q1 of 2019-20 with Month-wise QE data of RBI’s press release for July, August and September 2019-20. This data is provisional and subject to revision by RBI. In addition, it may be noted that data for October 2019 is estimated and added to the April-September 2019-20 data of RBI to calculate the Overall Trade Deficit for April-October 2019-20. It will be revised based on RBI’s next press release for October 2019.

I. MERCHANDISE TRADE
EXPORTS (including re-exports)
Exports inOctober 2019 were USD26.38 billion, as compared to USD26.67billion in October 2018, exhibiting a negative growth of 1.11 per cent. In Rupee terms, exports were Rs. 1,87,382.29crore in October 2019, as compared to Rs. 1,96,406.43crore in October 2018, registering a negative growth of 4.59per cent.
In October 2019, major commodity groups of export showing positivegrowth over the corresponding month of last year are
Cumulative value of exports for the period April-October 2019-20 was USD185.95 billion (Rs.13,04,149.06crore) as against USD190.15billion (Rs.13,17,881.40crore) during the period April-October 2018-19, registering a negative growth of 2.21per cent in Dollar terms (negative growth of 1.04per cent in Rupee terms).
Non-petroleum and Non Gems and Jewellery exports in October 2019 were USD19.04billion, as compared to USD18.93billion in October 2018, exhibiting a positive growth of 0.59per cent. Non-petroleum and Non Gems and Jewellery exports in April-October 2019-20 were USD137.45billion, as compared to USD137.93billion for the corresponding period in 2018-19, a decrease of 0.35per cent.

IMPORTS
Imports in October 2019 were USD37.39billion (Rs.2,65,628.46crore), which was 16.31per cent lower in Dollar terms and 19.26per cent lower in Rupee terms over imports of USD44.68billion (Rs.3,28,973.56 crore) in October 2018. Cumulative value of imports for the period April-October 2019-20 was USD280.67billion (Rs.19,67,625.73crore), as against USD306.31billion (Rs.21,23,857.76crore) during the period April-October 2018-19, registering a negative growth of 8.37per cent in Dollar terms (negative growth of 7.36per cent in Rupee terms).
Major commodity groups of import showing negative growth in October 2019 over the corresponding month of last year are:
CRUDE OIL AND NON-OIL IMPORTS:
Oil imports inOctober 2019 were USD9.63billion (Rs. 68,400.14crore), which was 31.74percentlower in Dollar terms (34.15percent lower in Rupee terms), compared to USD14.11billion (Rs. 1,03,864.85crore) in October2018. Oil imports in April-October 2019-20 were USD73.93billion (Rs. 5,18,270.66crore) which was 12.16per cent lower in Dollar terms (11.31percent lower in Rupee terms) compared to USD84.17billion (Rs. 5,84,362.56crore), over the same period last year.
In this connection it is mentioned that the global Brent price ($/bbl) has decreased by 26.22% in October 2019 vis-à-vis October 2018 as per data available from World Bank.
Non-oil imports inOctober 2019 were estimated at USD27.76billion (Rs. 1,97,228.32crore) which was 9.19per cent lower in Dollar terms (12.39percent lower in Rupee terms), compared to USD30.57billion (Rs. 2,25,108.71crore) in October 2018. Non-oil imports in April-October 2019-20 were USD206.74billion (Rs. 14,49,355.07 crore) which was 6.93per cent lower in Dollar terms (5.86percent lower in Rupee terms), compared to USD222.14billion (Rs. 15,39,495.20crore) in April-October2018-19.
Non-Oil and Non-Gold imports wereUSD25.92billion in October 2019, recording a negative growth of 10.04per cent, as compared to Non-Oil and Non-Gold importsof USD 28.82billion in October 2018. Non-Oil and Non-Gold imports wereUSD189.10billion in April-October 2019-20, recording a negative growth of 6.73per cent, as compared to Non-Oil and Non-Gold importsUSD 202.74billion in April-October 2018-19.


II. TRADE IN SERVICES
EXPORTS (Receipts)
As per the latest press release by RBI dated 15thNovember 2019, exports in September2019 were USD 17.54 billion (Rs. 1,25,090.78 crore) registering a positive growth of 7.05 per cent in dollar terms, vis-à-vis September2018. The estimated value of services export for October 2019* is USD 17.22 billion.
IMPORTS (Payments)
As per the latest press release by RBI dated 15thNovember 2019, imports in September 2019 were USD 11.10 billion (Rs. 79,151.87 crore) registering a positive growth of 11.56 per cent in dollar terms, vis-à-vis September 2018. The estimated value of service Import for October 2019* is USD 10.92 billion.
III.TRADE BALANCE
MERCHANDISE: The trade deficit for October 2019 was estimated at USD11.01billion as against the deficit of USD18.00billion inOctober 2018.
SERVICES: As per RBI’s Press Release dated 15thNovember 2019, the trade balance in Services (i.e. Net Services export) for September, 2019 is estimated at USD6.44billion.
OVERALL TRADE BALANCE: Taking merchandise and services together, overall trade deficit for April-October 2019-20* is estimated at USD49.45 billion as compared to USD71.45 billion in April-October 2018-19.

*Note: Services data pertains to April-September 2019-20 as September 2019 is the latest data available as per RBI’s Press Release dated 15th November 2019. It is arrived at by adding quarterly data of RBI for Q1 of 2019-20 with Month-wise QE data of RBI’s press release for July, August and September 2019-20. This data is provisional and subject to revision by RBI. In addition, it may be noted that data for October 2019 is estimated and added to the April-September 2019-20 data of RBI to calculate the Overall Trade Deficit for April-October 2019-20. It will be revised based on RBI’s next press release for October 2019.
MERCHANDISE TRADE


(PROVISIONAL)

OCTOBER
APRIL-OCTOBER
EXPORTS(including re-exports)


2018-19
26.67
190.15
2019-20
26.38
185.95
%Growth 2019-20/ 2018-19
-1.11
-2.21
IMPORTS


2018-19
44.68
306.31
2019-20
37.39
280.67
%Growth 2019-20/ 2018-19
-16.31
-8.37
TRADE BALANCE


2018-19
-18.00
-116.15
2019-20
-11.01
-94.72



EXPORTS &IMPORTS: (Rs. Crore)

(PROVISIONAL)


OCTOBER
APRIL-OCTOBER
EXPORTS(including re-exports)


2018-19
1,96,406.43
13,17,881.40
2019-20
1,87,382.29
13,04,149.06
%Growth 2019-20/ 2018-19
-4.59
-1.04
IMPORTS


2018-19
3,28,973.56
21,23,857.76
2019-20
2,65,628.46
19,67,625.73
%Growth 2019-20/ 2018-19
-19.26
-7.36
TRADE BALANCE


2018-19
-1,32,567.13
-8,05,976.35
2019-20
-78,246.17
-6,63,476.67


SERVICES TRADE

EXPORTS & IMPORTS (SERVICES) : (US $ Billion)
(PROVISIONAL)
September 2019
April-September 2019-20
EXPORTS (Receipts)
17.54
107.06
IMPORTS (Payments)
11.10
68.10
TRADE BALANCE
6.44
38.96



EXPORTS & IMPORTS (SERVICES): (Rs. Crore)
(PROVISIONAL)
September 2019
April-September 2019-20
EXPORTS (Receipts)
1,25,090.78
7,49,213.20
IMPORTS (Payments)
79,151.87
4,76,546.62
TRADE BALANCE
45,938.90
2,72,666.58
Source: RBI Press Release dated 15thNovember 2019


Note: Services data pertains to April-September 2019-20 as September 2019 is the latest data available as per RBI’s Press Release dated 15thNovember 2019. It is arrived at by adding quarterly data of RBI for Q1 of 2019-20 with Month-wise QE data of RBI’s press release for July, August and September 2019. This has been used along with the estimate of service exports and imports for August 2019, as explained in page-1 for the purpose of this Press note
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